Last updated on November 10th, 2023
Who should be your priority players for the next Gameweek, position by position
Written by Keiran Trotter (@fpl_del)
It feels like a while since I created one of these. I was away last week and did a quick thread on who I thought were good picks for gameweek 11 but I have to say, I didn’t have access to a great deal of analytics whilst away and the picks were very safe, gut feel picks rather than anything else. That’s not an excuse for how they performed, just an explanation as to why they seemed like obvious picks with less evidence to back them up.
I’ve had a relatively quiet couple of weeks, FPL-wise, after a big gameweek in 9. I had a small red arrow in 10 followed by an even smaller green arrow in 11, so all in all I feel refreshed, ready to kick on and looking forward to delivering some great picks for you ahead of gameweek 12.
Week 11 Review
I’m not going to go into too much detail here, as mentioned I didn’t have access to my usual analytics. I opted for Ederson as my keeper, who did what Ederson does and conceded the only shot on target in City’s 6-1 demolition of Bournemouth. Incidentally, his save percentage of 70% ranks him 11th of Goalkeepers to have played at least 5 games, which really isn’t good enough.
2 points from Alexander-Arnold as my defender was disappointing, given the fixture vs Luton. I would have expected at least something at one end of the pitch from him, although the top defenders this week were what you might consider ‘leftfield’ picks, with Tyrick Mitchell and Harry Toffolo topping the charts with 15 points.
With Manchester City scoring 6 it was always likely they would have someone from Midfield starring. The problem, as ever with City, is picking who it is going to be. This week it was Jeremy Doku with a monster 22-point haul (4 assists and a goal) as well as Bernado Silva picking up 2 goals and 14 points. Meanwhile, Mo Salah was thwarted by Luton and registered just 2 points.
Only 4 strikers hit the back of the net in gameweek 11 and Nicolas Jackson was the star with his hat-trick against 9 man Spurs’ and their suicidal defending. I opted for Darwin Nunez who also blanked to round off a pretty horrific week of picks and a grand total of 8 points. Let’s hope for a bit more than that this week ☹️
It’s a tough call, looking for a clean sheet this week. On the surface, Spurs away at Wolves look like a good option but with injuries and suspensions we’re not exactly sure how they will line up and if we can trust the second string coming in. What we can be sure of is that Guglielmo Vicario is fast establishing himself as an absolute beast of a keeper.
Manchester United have the home tie vs Luton but their form has definitely been on the upturn in recent weeks picking up some valuable points.
The least potent teams in the league by my standard metrics are Sheffield United, Burnley, Bournemouth and Fulham. The best defences in the league are Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Chelsea. Looking at those matchups points us to Arsenal at home to Burnley and Newcastle away at Bournemouth as the best possible fixture. Whilst I think Nick Pope (£5.5m) is a solid option I’m always going to back the home fixture and go for David Raya (£4.8m) as my goalkeeping pick of the week.
That decision is backed up by Arsenal being the favourites with the bookies for a clean sheet with a chance of 52%. Interestingly, they have Newcastle at only 31% chance (T8 out of all fixtures this week).
With Arsenal and Manchester United firmly established with the bookies as the favourites for a clean sheet this week I am inclined to look at their options first and foremost. Sadly, there isn’t too much in the way of exciting attacking picks from either at the moment. Only 3 Arsenal defenders have registered from an attacking perspective so far and only Ben White (£5.7m) has more than 1 with a goal and an assist and an xGI of 1.28. Pickings are equally as slim at United with Diogo Dalot (£4.9m) the best of the bunch with a solitary goal and an xGI of 1.4.
So with that in mind, we look at the more consistent attacking threats so far for this season, and 2 players stand out above the rest. Kieran Trippier has been in excellent form with 6 assists and an xGI of 3.82. He’s well clear of any other defender in terms of FPL points and the Bournemouth fixture is a good one for him from both perspectives (Bournemouth rank 18th for defence and attack using my metrics).
Matty Cash (£5.2m) is the other option. He’s registered 2 goals and an assist so far this season from an xGI of 4.46 and with a home fixture against Fulham who rank 17th for attack so far there is good potential this week for him.
For a slightly more leftfield pick, Joachim Anderson (£5.1m) has 2 goals and an assist so far this season and has a nice home tie vs Everton this week. That said, Everton’s form has been better of late with 3 wins and 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games including the Carabao Cup.
None of that can really detract me from the solidity and dual threat of Kieran Trippier this week. He’s solid, consistent and has one of the best fixtures this week, so he will be my defender pick of the week.
As noted in previous weeks in this article, there are 5 or 6 midfielders that have really started to establish themselves so far this season. We have 7 players now with 8 or more goal involvements and these have to be under consideration this week. Maybe a little surprisingly, there are 2 Wolves players in this list. Pedro Neto (£5.6m) has a goal and 8 assists but is now out with a hamstring injury. Hwang Hee-Chan (£5.5m) has 6 goals and 2 assists but they come up against Spurs this week. Whilst it might be a good time to play Spurs with the availability issues they have, I think there are other fixtures that are better.
Likewise, based on the above, I don’t think the Spurs duo of Son Heung-Min (£9.6m – 8 goals, 1 assist) and James Maddison (£8.1m – 3 goals, 6 assists) are the best option either. Maddison picked up a slight knock against Chelsea and is a doubt and I think the all round disruption to Spurs will weaken their attacking threat this week.
Mohammed Salah (£12.9m) is the leading midfielder with 4 goals and 8 assists so far this season, but Liverpool come up against a tough Brentford side who have been in great form recently with 3 wins and 2 clean sheets in their last 3. Whilst Salah is the definition of being fixture-proof, there are definitely better fixtures for others this week. And conversely, the same is true for Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8m – 6 goals, 3 assists). He was exceptional in the last 3 weeks with 2 goals and 3 assists but Liverpool should provide a much sterner test.
Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m – 7 goals, 1 assist) has a nice home fixture against Forest who are firmly in the bottom half defensively this season and I would definitely be considering him if it wasn’t for Arsenal having such a good fixture at home to Burnley this week. This fixture is just too good to ignore and with Bukayo Saka (£8.6m – 4 goals, 5 assists) going up against statistically one of the worst 3 defences in the league. He limped off against Seville late on Wednesday night but Arteta seemed confident he would be ready for the weekend, we might just have to take a late call on that one.
Forwards (minus Haaland)
Of the top 22 points scorers in FPL so far this season, only 3 of them are strikers and the chances are, you all have at least 2 of them. Erling Haaland (£14.0m), Ollie Watkins (£8.4m) and Julian Alvarez (£7.2m) are at least 12 points clear of anyone else so far with Haaland’s tally of 80 points almost double that of 4th places forward, Eddie Nketiah (£5.7m – 49 points) and he is a doubt for this weekend.
Callum Wilson (£7.9m) is back as first choice for Newcastle with Alexander Isak (£7.4m) out injured but Wilson himself was replaced at halftime of Newcastle’s UCL defeat to Dortmund on Tuesday. Darwin Nunez (£7.5m) at Liverpool has 4 goals and 5 assists from only 5 starts but Liverpool have all their attacking options fit again now so rotation is inevitable, especially given they will be in action late on Thursday in the Europa League.
Evan Ferguson (£6m – 5 goals) has arguably the best tie of the week at home to Sheffield United and has started 5 of Brighton’s last 6 games but he has been hooked in all of those, 3 times before 60 minutes and has only 1 goal since his hat-trick in gameweek 4. Brighton again have plenty of attacking options and are also in Europa League action on Thursday. If I was feeling punty, he would be my choice this week but with Ollie Watkins in such good form, no real questions over his minutes (950 out of 990 so far) and playing at home against Fulham, he’s my choice for forward pick of the week.
Picks of the Week
David Raya (Arsenal GK £4.8m)
Kieran Trippier (Newcastle DF £7.0m)
Bukayo Saka (Arsenal MF £8.6m)
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa FW £8.4m)
Best of luck for the week ahead and I’ll see you next week for another review and set of Picks of the Week.