Last updated on August 15th, 2025
It’s that time of the year: the Premier League is just around the corner and so is Fantasy Premier League. The most exciting game to add that little extra enjoyment to the best league in the world makes a return for yet another season of double captains, wildcards and many more.
However, FPL is more than just a game, it’s a complex exercise where your decision-making, your probability assessment and your risk management will be put to the test against the other 11 million managers who, like you will be looking to be top of the global leaderboard and become the best FPL manager of the year.
But for you to become the best manager, you’ll need to take risks, like what professional gamblers do when they play and get those massive casino cashback bonuses.
In this guide, you’ll learn how to manage risk with some of the best takeout from professional gambling, all with the aim of making you clinch that top 10k finish.
Manage your FPL Budget as if it was Your Bankroll
In gambling, your bankroll is the money you have available to place bets and play, the essential tool with which individuals make massive earnings. Of course, these individuals make great use of the money they have at their disposal and make strategies to spread their bankroll as much as they can to get more and better chances.
The same theory applies to your FPL budget allocation. Instead of spending big on Haaland and Salah, try to make wiser decisions and analyse many factors. Maybe there’s a specific striker that you consider is massively undervalued, take the risk and go for him, as that would mean you could also buy a better midfielder or defender, instead of spending big on Salah and having to play a bench player as you have no budget remaining.
Avoid Emotional Tilt
In gambling, many players can suffer from emotional tilts after, let’s say, losing a big bet or not getting the result they want, thus making the incorrect decision of playing again and losing even more.
With FPL, that means not buying a player because you like or he plays for the club you support. A poor captaincy choice or choosing the incorrect player in one match week can be the difference between making it to the top 10k or coming short.
Professional gamblers train themselves to stick to their strategy regardless of what happens, not making emotional decisions and maintaining their structure even if things go wrong. Same applies to FPL, if a player gets injured, don’t rush it and put the next player that fits your budget or change your team completely, try to see who gets a similar number of points and keep your same strategy, as not changing something that isn’t broken may be the best choice.
Make the Best Out of Expected Value (EV)
The concept of Expected Value in gambling is the measure of the average result of a decision over the long term, essentially what may happen if you make a specific move. Professional gamblers only make moves with a positive EV, which means that, if they repeat that same strategy over time, even if they start losing, they will end up with a positive return.
Essentially, Expected Value could be applied to FPL with things like transfers or captaincy picks. For example, choosing to captain Haaland when Manchester City faces a much weaker side has a high expected value, as, based on historic events, he has consistently performed excellently on such occasions.
Maybe another player could outscore him or maybe Haaland doesn’t have his day, nevertheless you had taken the wisest decision as it was a high EV situation.
On the long term, exploiting these high EV situations when they are available could almost guarantee you a place on the higher places of the ranking.
Diversification: Why Choosing Players from Every Premier League Team is Important
It’s very rare for a professional gambler to go “all-in” on the first time of asking, nor the second or the third. Gamblers, as briefly explained before, diversify their strategy so they can avoid negative outcomes.
In FPL terms that means not to go all-in on one single club, especially those from the lower part of the table. Overloading from one specific team can be very costly on the long term. Yes, maybe Liverpool have their day, and they batter their opponent, giving you a good number of points, but it could also happen otherwise, which is why you should be playing with no more than two players of the same team, three on some occasions.
Be Smart, But Take Risks
Essentially, what makes a good gambler is, not only his strategy, his discipline and his ability to control emotions, but also how he is able to manage risks and perform calmly under pressure.
In FPL, the story is tremendously similar. The aim is not to win every time, but rather to win over the long term by applying a strategy where you can handle risk with ease. If you follow those steps, you will find yourself in the top of the ranks.
