Last updated on June 6th, 2025
Anyone playing Premier League fantasy football should be looking at ways to leverage an advantage over the competition. Players naturally do a lot of groundwork by researching the form of teams and players to start putting a line-up together for the next set of fixtures. From reading through the latest news and match reports to trying to pick up as much information as you can towards how to set up your squad, research is key.
Premier League Fantasy Football has nothing to do with betting on the actual matches from the top flight, of course. However, certain elements typically found at sportsbooks – specifically, the odds and betting markets – can be put to good use when analysing options in fantasy football. Just take a look at any of the top UK bookmakers at Legalbet, an expert platform comparing sportsbooks and their services. You’ll notice that every match comes with a wide range of betting markets, which can be useful for non-betting purposes as well. The odds seen at sportsbooks are not just arbitrary numbers; they are the result of heavy research, and they could be an untapped resource for fantasy picks.
Doing the Heavy Lifting
What is important to realise about a bookmaking business is that they thrive on accuracy. They can’t afford to post odds that will expose themselves to greater risk than necessary because that would hit them where it hurts the most – in the pocket.
There is always some degree of risk exposure in any odds, but bookies do everything in their power to minimise that as much as possible. The main way to do that is by relying heavily on research and information, which they mostly get from third parties.
Those third-party research and data businesses also rely on accuracy so their products remain relevant and trustworthy. It is, therefore, a strong chain that links together to strengthen accuracy as much as possible for football odds.
What Can Odds Tell Fantasy Players?
Odds are the language of implied probability, as it’s what each number represents. A price of 1/1 (2.00, even money), for example, implies that it has a 50% chance of happening. A longer price of 3/1 in turn has a much lower probability of 25%, while what is known as an odds-on quote of 1/4, depicts an 80% implied probability.
Bookmakers work their margins into their odds as well, which can slightly skew the probability that the punter gets to see (like offering 10/11 instead of 1/1). But those margins are small enough to overlook for using odds to make fantasy picks.
The odds/probabilities are the calculations that the bookmaker’s analysis has led them to, and they aren’t right all of the time, which is why you’ll see slight variations between odds and different bookies. But still, the odds are not created from random guesses; they come out of deep analysis and this is a great thing for Premier League Fantasy Football players who can lean on that for team selections and here’s how:
Finding Value Players
Value bets are a betting concept where a punter believes that the bookie has underestimated an option which is at a longer price than expected. That concept can be taken into players, whose fantasy price may appear to be a bit low compared to their implied probability on a current market like the Anytime Goalscorer market. Don’t be afraid to challenge bookmaker odds to unlock hidden gems.
Match Winner Odds
A very simple fantasy pick selection can come from the Match Outright odds for selecting the captain. As you want a winning captain for the game week, look at the odds to see which teams are firm favourites and nominate a player based on that. The same can go for the vice-captain.
Leaning on Defence
Finding teams that have strong odds-on favouritism in the Clean Sheet betting market for a game is worth looking at as well. This can be a great indicator of which defensive players or goalkeepers look strong enough to potentially come up with a blank during the game. This is especially good for finding players from mid-table teams.
High-Scoring Outlook
Markets like Over/Under Goals, Total Home Goals and Total Away Goals can be a good indicator of how high-scoring a match is likely to be. The natural inclination then is to take those matches and look for the most likely scoring threats within them to bolster fantasy points.
Bonus Tip: Watch the Odds
Odds on football markets are never static, and it’s always worth watching them throughout the week in the build-up to a game. Odds will react to things like player injury news and the announcement of a team line-up, but always bear in mind whether players are likely to start or not.
An Extra Resource
Bookmakers use sophisticated software and algorithms to piece together their odds, with an extremely high priority on accuracy. It’s an extensive data analysis of probability that fantasy football players can use to their advantage for decisions over team selections.
